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Three years have now passed since the signing of the Dayton Accords, and a year since we last met in this Council. So this is a good moment to pause, to assess how we are progressing, and to map out the best route by which to reach our common goal - a self-sustaining peace in BiH. How do matters now stand, ten days before the fourth Christmas since the war? Let me spare you the positive side of the account. Continuing peace thanks to those nations and soldiers who, as I speak, stand guard over it there, in the bitter cold of the Bosnian winter. The basic attributes of statehood, the flag, which you can see here, the currency, the neutral licence plates, the core Dayton institutions. Basic economic laws - privatisation, property laws, foreign investment -. Open airports, railways that begin to regularly run across the old confrontation line, telephones. The trend towards more pluralism and tolerance election after election. All this is self-evident: BiH is no longer the place it was just after the war. Let me indulge in recording some progress - although not enough - in bringing persons indicted for war crimes to The Hague. 26 are now in custody. But many still remain free, including Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. It is essential that they be brought before the Court in The Hague if justice is to be done and for the sake of long-term reconciliation in BiH. Let me also pay tribute to one recent achievement, the landmark agreements on the Ploce port and on special relations between Croatia and the Federation which, together with the US, my Principal Deputy, Jacques Klein, has helped to negotiate, so that Bosnia is no more an enclave. But to be realistic, what we have done, in short, is to repair the basics of the country, return just under half a million refugees and displaced persons in three years, and help set the country in motion. It is true that what were perceived as tremendous obstacles - media restructuring, the establishment of institutions, initiating the process, through elections, of creating a more constructive and pluralistic political culture - now lie behind us. But let's make no mistake: an enormous amount of hard work still lies ahead. Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, despite all we have done, remains fragile. It still cannot survive without substantial international support, and the crucial presence of SFOR. Because for peace to become really stable, tolerance and reconciliation must be achieved in Bosnia, and this means the return of refugees and displaced persons to their homes if they so wish, the rule of law, full respect of human rights, fully working Dayton institutions, and a self-sustaining free-market economy at a reasonable throttle. All this we still must achieve if we are to be successful: and that's why we still remain in BiH. So we must use the next crucial two year period to devote all the energy and commitment we can muster to building a modern, democratic Bosnia, in which all citizens are equal before the law and all citizens have confidence in the law. A country with close and growing ties with the rest of Europe. A country which cherishes its different historical, cultural, linguistic and religious traditions - which draws on them as a source of strength, as many of the countries represented in this room have learned to do. We need to create a political, economic and security environment that is ripe for returns. We need to strengthen BiH internally and externally. We will set out tomorrow, in the Declaration and in its Annex, a comprehensive blueprint for doing this. This has been developed in close consultation with the Steering Board and in much closer consultation than ever before with the authorities at all levels in BiH. I am grateful for their contributions and appreciate the constructive spirit in which they worked with us on it. Let me set out for you now the main elements which this programme contains. The programme calls for a real push on refugee returns in 1999.This is not a task that can be accomplished by one agency alone. It will require a collective effort of Herculean proportions, with full co-operation, within the RRTF, of all the agencies involved. It will certainly require the help of SFOR, on a scale to match the intensified scale of returns that we hope to achieve. I am delighted at the willingness of SFOR to help, and the commitment and dedication of Generals Clark and Meigs to help us to meet this formidable challenge. At the same time, we will need to work to create the conditions to make these returns viable in the long term. That means creating jobs; it means schools which respect the background of all children and teach tolerance; it means respect of human rights and freedom from discrimination, a safe environment, and reliable institutions which deserve the people's confidence.. Above all, we must institutionalise the rule of law, both through a comprehensive programme of judicial reform, and the establishment of a truly independent, impartial and multi-ethnic judiciary. We will reinforce the institutions for human rights protection. And we must also devote special priority to continued police restructuring, and to the creation of a truly professional and multi-ethnic police forces across the country. UNMIBH and the UNIPTF have done sterling work in this crucial area in the last year. Without reliable police, peace will not hold in BiH. I am determined that we use 1999 to transform the common institutions into effectively functioning bodies. They now have, at last, a common home. Their operations are improving, but they remain too ineffectual. We must tackle this problem, by reforming the Council of Ministers and creating a professional, apolitical civil service. And we must end, once and for all, the so-called 'parallel structures'. But none of the above will survive for very long or mean very much unless we can get Bosnia's economy back on its feet. The situation has improved since the war - GDP is up, unemployment down. Many of the necessary laws are now in place. But the economy limps along. Bosnia is not yet an attractive place for foreign investors. We have to change all that if the economy is ever to act as the dynamo for growth and jobs that is so desperately needed. We have no time to lose, because aid flows to Bosnia will soon start to tail away. So we must, in 1999, forge ahead with a radical programme that installs the legal and regulatory structure essential to a market economy. We must step up the fight against corruption, fraud and fiscal evasion. All of the above should be founded on one principle - a more effective say for Bosnians in the running of their country. Real democracy in other words, in the broadest sense. This encompasses the right to participate in free and open debate through a free and pluralistic media - access to television where all opinions are represented and respected. Fundamental to this will be the creation of the economic space necessary for the indigenous media to flourish: and for this to happen, unfair distortion of the market by illegal broadcasting from surrounding countries must stop. Bosnia and Herzegovina needs progress in democratisation, in the building of civil society and a stronger voluntary sector, in informing people of their rights under the law. This means convincing people that their elected representatives work for them and not the other way round. That's why we are drawing up and putting into effect a permanent Election Law as soon as possible. This law should, inter alia, promote the concept of a multi-ethnic state, establish the independence of Election Commissions from political influence, favour political pluralism and preserve the rights of refugees and displaced persons to vote in the municipalities of their pre-war homes. In the coming year, I also want to see us a place a major emphasis on education at all levels, to ensure that the next generation of Bosnians are taught both to value their own identity, their own roots, their own traditions - but also to respect the traditions of others. In addition to strengthening BiH internally, we must also work to reinforce the outer ring that defines an independent country. A core project for 1999 will be the establishment of a Bosnia and Herzegovina Border Service at the State level, with the appropriate legal foundation, to control the frontiers of the country. This force might in due course carry out other work such as drug enforcement, diplomatic protection and protection of state buildings, and investigation work as a partner for Europol and Interpol. We must also work in the coming year to tackle the inherently unstable position of having two - and some would say three - armies present in one country. We must step up our work on confidence building measures, increase the professionalism of the Entity Armed Forces, and remove the military from inappropriate involvement in politics. Let us also take steps towards establishing a common security policy and a State dimension to defence, including by strengthening the work of the SCMM. Let us also - through a programme of security co-operation activities - to prepare BiH for closer association with NATO's PFP programme. And we must increase the transparency of military funding - and start to reduce it. It is patently absurd that a country like BiH should spend over a quarter of its GDP on its military. Let there be clear and verifiable targets sets in 1999 for steadily cutting back on this expenditure. I encourage donors to cut their aid contributions by equivalent percentages if these targets are not met. While we strengthen BiH at every level, we must also improve its ties with the rest of Europe. Bosnia is a European country, and its future lies in steadily close association with the European institutions. The first goal must be membership of the Council of Europe at the earliest possible date once the relevant conditions are met. At the same time, Bosnia must strengthen its ties with the European Union, of which, one day, I hope it will eventually become a member. I strongly encourage the EU to build on the work of the EU/BiH Task Force established earlier this year to forge closer ties between the Union and BiH in the political and economic spheres. This, then, and the programme set out in the Declaration and its annex, are an honest assessment of what we now need to do to make peace in Bosnia irreversible. I say to you very frankly: we have before us a monumental task. Success generates resistance. We have now reached a defining moment in civilian implementation, one in which I will need, more than ever, the full and unstinting support of the entire PIC. If we implement the programme that I have outlined, we will have built peace in Bosnia. That is the prize. And this is why I intend to continue to use the authority I was given at Bonn to maintain progress in civilian implementation. I will do so judiciously and sparingly - but I shall not hesitate to do so when it is necessary in the interests of Dayton implementation. However, let us be clear, we will also need all the support of the people of Bosnia and herzegovina and their leaders at all levels. So I say to the Entities: we will respect your autonomy, but help us by playing your part to foster the common institutions. And I say to the people of Bosnia: work with us as you have done in the last year, support practical solutions to practical problems - remember the licence plates -, eschew political dogma. Now is a time for unity and purpose and steadfast resolve from us all. It is no time for quitting, or speculating about quitting, but a time for marshalling a new commitment to see this thing through to the end. It is a time for renewing our determination to turn the pledges written on paper at Dayton into reality enshrined in everyday life in Bosnia and Herzegovina. So let us press on. Because the choice is clear: between War - or the real risk of it returning - , and Peace. We owe it to ourselves, we owe it to all those who perished, to succeed in our work, and not to stop until the whole job is done. That, then, is the objective. I appeal to you all to join with me in achieving it.
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