Situation
- About 600,000 refugees are still abroad, mostly in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, in Germany and in Croatia. Emigration continues: some young and educated urban people, as well as ethnic minorities, are, reportedly, still leaving the country, in large part for economic reasons. Displaced persons account for about a quarter of the population in both Entities. And there are about 40,000 refugees from Croatia in Republika Srpska.
- Large population movements have already taken place. More than 400,000 persons returned in 1996, mainly to the Federation. But the time of ³easy returns², i.e. voluntary returns to areas controlled by the returneesı ethnic group, is now over 1997 returns were 40 percent less than 1996. Few people have returned to areas where they would be ethnic minorities, and such ³minority returns² are often localized in the Zone of Separation, and correspond to elderly individuals or large groups with strong international back up.
- Accurate and precise data are not available to adequately foresee all future population movements. A majority of refugees and displaced persons state their willingness to return to their places of origin, but a large number of rural people who were displaced into cities express little desire to return to their villages. And a number of those who are still abroad are trying to integrate in their current country of residence or to resettle in a third country. In the two to three years to come, population movements are likely to involve about 300,000 to 400,000 persons, including a large proportion being repatriated from abroad.
Objectives and Financing Requirements
- The primary factor for refugees and displaced persons when making the decision to return is political. A proper political environment and security are critical pre-conditions. To date, economic assistance has proven to have little influence on the decision to return if political conditions are not right. The other main obstacles to successful reintegration are lack of accommodation (and related infrastructure) and lack of employment opportunities. Economic assistance can and should make a critical difference in these areas, making returns not only possible, but also sustainable.
- Assistance should be aimed at ensuring refugees and displaced persons can make free and informed choices with regard to their place of residence within Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus should be on those populations and areas which may require the greatest assistance for such a free choice to become a reality, and in particular for those minorities who are willing to return. In appropriate cases, assistance may, however, also be directed towards those rural populations who wish to settle permanently in cities, and to persons returning to majority areas from asylum countries.
- A substantial amount of external support is needed for specific, reintegration-related projects, within the framework of the Priority Reconstruction Program designed in late 1995 by the European Commission and the World Bank. The financing target for these projects in 1998 is US$520 million (see Table 1):
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