II. ECONOMY
1. General overview of the BiH economy
- Despite the adverse effects of a severe drought on agricultural production, real GDP growth is estimated to be 10% in 2000. There was an improvement in the merchandise trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments, however the negative current account to GDP ratio remains very high at 20% of GDP. Exports are estimated to have grown by 13 % during the year, while imports declined by 7%. The growth in foreign reserves, which now stand at about 2.25 months of equivalent imports, moderated during 2000, reflecting the more uniform acceptance of the Convertible Mark (KM) throughout BiH and the ending of the portfolio adjustments that took place in 1999. Despite the effects of the drought on food prices, inflation at the end of year was quite low (about 3.5% in the Federation) and was declining in the RS (about 10%).
- Overall, the economy in BiH remains fragile, with the main difficulties during 2000 being increased external debt service requirements and their impacts on the budgets of the Entities. Wage increases in the RS, the depreciation of the KM against the US$, and higher spending on refugees and displaced persons, all placed pressures on the Entity budgets. This required a re-balancing exercise in mid-year, resulting in a fiscal deficit before transfers of 3.8% of GDP in the RS and 2.8% of GDP in the Federation.
- Economic and social conditions remain precarious for much of the population. Unemployment is extremely high (40-50%) and many of those most capable of contributing to the future development of the economy continue to leave, especially the youngest and brightest, which exacerbates the problems of an aging population.
2. The May Brussels PIC and its economic goals
- The IC program of economic reforms is now focusing on improving tax collection, restructuring the tax system, financial reform, building the social safety net, improving the business environment, promoting foreign investment, accelerating privatization, developing the agricultural sector and restructuring and eventual privatization of public utilities (including transport, telecommunications, and energy).
a) Labour Reform
- As part of a package aimed at bringing BiH labor legislation in line with European market economies, I imposed the Federation Law on Job Placement and Social Security of the Unemployed on 20 December 2000. It will put the Federation Employment Bureau on a proper legal footing and do away with the inefficiency and non-transparency in the unemployment benefit system under the former Socialist Republic of BiH.
b) Pension Reform
- On 12 November 2000, due to the precarious position of the pension system in BiH and the accumulation of arrears in the Federation -Sarajevo based- pension fund and in the one of the RS, I imposed amendments to the Law on Pension and Disability Insurance in both Entities. Tying current pension payments to available resources was one of the prerequisites to achieve regular pension payments; avoiding the accumulation of further arrears; and protecting the elderly by guaranteeing a minimum pension. Moreover the approval of this legislative package ensured the release of much needed credits of relevant International Financial Institutions including a 24 million USD World Bank structural adjustment credit. In the Federation, it was also necessary to impose the Law on Organisation of the Pension and Disability Fund which provides for the merger of the Sarajevo and Mostar Pension Funds, an outstanding example of parallel institutions. An ad hoc working group on pensions, established by the Federation PM, is now actively working to finalize legislative, organizational, and financial measures to smooth the implementation of the relevant Laws.
c) BiH Standardization and Accreditation
- On 12 November 2000 I issued six Decisions on the establishment of a four-pillar system of accreditation, standardisation, metrology, and certification/testing for BiH industrial products. This system is a pre-condition for the normal functioning of industry and trade, and especially for the export of BiH products. Although the European Union liberalised imports from BiH, FYR of Macedonia, Albania and Croatia, exporters in these countries must still pass the conformity assessment procedure to prove their products comply with existing EU product legislation and standards.
d) Foreign Trade
- The most significant development in BiH's efforts to develop its foreign trade sector has been the signing of a Free Trade Agreement with Croatia, its dominant trading partner. BiH products imported into Croatia will be immediately exempt from duties, while duties on Croatian imports into BiH will be reduced by 30 percent in 2001 and be gradually eliminated by 2004. In addition to this, the CoM approved the BiH negotiating position for its membership application to the World Trade Organisation.
- To further facilitate trade between BiH and the EU, I imposed Amendments to the BiH Law on Customs Policy in order to update customs regulations consistent with current EU customs policies and procedures. These amendments were also designed to enable refugees to return to BiH without having to pay customs duties on their personal belongings, supporting returns to BiH. In addition, the amendments closed a series of duty free shops at border crossing points to crack down on smuggling and improve the collection of revenues.
e) Financial Reform
- The Peace Implementation Council (PIC) called for the elimination of the payment bureaux at its Madrid meeting in December 1998 and repeated this when it met in Brussels in May 2000. The payment bureaux made financial transactions in BiH cumbersome and operated in a non-transparent manner, deterring potential investors. Their abolishment was also one of the requirements of the "EU Road Map", and one of the measures BiH had to take to qualify for membership in the Council of Europe. As part of this dismantling process, I introduced legislation, which was outstanding, for a smooth transition to the establishment of an operational financial system. Negotiations are ongoing concerning the tenders and sale of a number of banks and bank assets in both the RS and the Federation.
f) Privatization of Enterprises
- In both Entities, the enterprise privatisation process has gathered momentum after a long period of uncertainty and delay. Small-scale privatisation has progressed with approximately 200 companies sold through auctions, tenders or direct sales in the Federation and approximately 80 companies sold through auctions and direct sales in the RS. In the large-scale enterprises, the pace of privatisation has definitely been slower and only 12 companies have been partly privatised in the RS and 70 in the Federation to date.
g) Public Utilities Re-structuring
- While the main function of the Commission on Public Corporations (CPC) is to implement Dayton Annex IX (i.e. help re-unite the country's utilities and infrastructure), it has increasingly become obvious that creating joint utility corporations can also serve as a tool in sector reform. BRIC, the new Joint Road Infrastructure Public Corporation, will not only set and enforce common road standards but also implement demand-driven network development, focusing on corridor roads. A recent review of the railway sector in BiH showed that, even five years after the war, railways have not been able to recover their market share or improve their financial performance, mainly due to key network deficiencies, a matter the Joint Railway Public Corporation will address.
- A new Telecommunications Policy for BiH that promulgates privatisation and staged liberalisation was approved by the CoM on 9 November 2000. However, due to procedural disputes and an inability at the State-level to resolve the issues, official publication was repeatedly delayed. I, therefore, decided to pass a decision to publish the Telecommunications Policy in the Official Gazette on 14 February 2001. In the energy sector, Entity governments have approved a new policy calling for the creation of a separate joint power grid Transmission Corporation. Submission of new, market-oriented Electricity Laws to parliaments is a key condition for the $230 million World Bank (IDA) Power III Loan Project which will also launch the energy sector reform.
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