ECONOMY
- Highlights:
- Foreign Reserves grew substantially.
- US Budgetary Support to the RS was completed.
- IMF releases Stand-by Arrangement funds.
- Given slow progress in privatization, the Economic Task Force is reviewing options.
- The International Community is concerned about the Federation Lawıs financial burden on companies.
- The Federation pension funds face resistance to unify.
- The Anti-Corruption and Transparency (ACT) Group is working effectively. Transparency Internationalıs local chapter will empower "ownership" concept.
- Bank privatization faces low progress. My Office is considering various means.
- Reform of Payment Bureaus is progressing satisfactorily.
- A new foreign investment promotion strategy is in place.
- A trade agreement with the European Union will allow Bosnia and Herzegovina to trade preferences.
- State public corporation for road infrastructure is founded. Progress on Commission on Public Corporations and general restructuring and reform in public utilities.
- Increasing focus on agriculture sector.
- Increasing Use of the Konvertible Mark and the Growth of Foreign Reserves: The fourth quarter of 1999 witnessed very strong growth in KM sales and foreign reserves of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina reached DM 877 million on December 31 three times as high as in the beginning of the year. Critical in this improvement has been the exclusion of DM and Kuna transactions in the Federation Payment Bureaus. In March, the Czech Republic and Slovakia joined the other six European countries where trading in KM is allowed, thereby expanding the international acceptance of the currency.
- Budgetary Support: The Government of the United States had provided US$10 million for budgetary support to the Republika Srpska. The assistance benefited more than 17,000 employees with net salaries (excluding social security contributions) in the Ministry of Education. A part of the assistance also assisted the workers of the Ministry of Refugees and Displaced People. Support from the Government of Switzerland (Swiss Francs 1.9 million), was evenly shared between the two Entities, to aid the education and health sectors in the Federation and the health sector in the RS. These programs were designed to alleviate the impact stemming from the Kosovo crisis.
- The IMF completed its second and third reviews of the Stand-By Arrangement and made available $15 million immediately. This action was possible following the Federation adjustment to its 2000 budget regarding transfers to the State for administrative expenses and payment for external debt charges. The Federation also harmonized the law on excise taxes and removed various sales tax exemptions; the RS is expected to harmonize its excise taxes in the next month.
- Privatization: A non-navigable bureaucracy, legislative barriers, resistance from enterprise managers, and political resistance have been the central obstacles to a rapid privatization. The US Government decided to temporarily suspend its assistance to the Federation privatization program; further technical assistance is conditioned on progress. The Economic Task Force is considering measures including the establishment of a Federation central tendering office, the appointment of international experts to the privatization agencies and a strategy to address co-capitalized companies.
- The State Draft Law on Restitution in Bosnia and Herzegovina, drafted by my Office, has not yet been considered by the State Parliament. The Federation Law on Restitution is pending before the Federation Parliament due to disagreement on contentious issues such as the restitution of socially owned apartments. In the Republika Srpska, a Draft Law on Restitution has been submitted to the National Assembly.
- With the initiative of my Office and financial support from the US Government, the RS authorities opened satellite offices in the Federation to assist those persons eligible under the RS privatization scheme. A similar office in Banja Luka, supporting the Federation scheme, was established earlier in 1999. Registration of claims in the RS commenced in early January through many permanent and mobile registration points including in the Federation.
- Passage of the Federation Labour Law: My Office and members of the international community regret the passage of this law which includes means of compensation for employees currently on or eligible for registration on the "waiting lists" which would place the financial viability of many firms at risk. My Office is working in a special commission with the relevant Federation ministry and the international community to address this law and other related laws.
- Pension Reforms: The draft Law on Pension and Invalid Fund Organization, which provides for the merging of the sharply divided Sarajevo and the Mostar pension funds, was not approved. Nevertheless, a series of essential urgent reforms necessary for the merging will be implemented. The international communityıs unified position on adhering to strict conditions will prevent the release of an additional tranche and new credit lines from the World Bank.
- Fight Against Corruption: The Anti-Corruption and Transparency (ACT) Group, whose members are major international agencies present in Bosnia and Herzegovina, regularly met to implement the Comprehensive Anti-Corruption Strategy to reinvigorate efforts and priorities. My Office organized the visit of Transparency International (TI) representatives for eventual establishment of an independent and locally owned Chapter. I strongly support this. A non-governmental organization will demonstrate the "ownership" concept by empowering local authorities and citizens with initiatives and responsibilities. The TI Chapter will monitor and advise governments on anti-corruption efforts and raise public awareness. Local "champions of change" in the local Chapter are presently being identified.
- In February, my Office organized the Bosnia and Herzegovina Anti-Corruption and Transparency Conference which called for concrete steps to be taken by the relevant political authorities against corruption and fraud, as well as improving transparency and addressing conflicts of interest. To increase awareness and support for these objectives, an anti-corruption public awareness campaign was launched, which has just completed its first phase successfully. Several anti-corruption and capacity-building seminars and workshops involving local judiciary and law enforcement agencies were held.
- A good success in the fight against corruption and fraud was achieved in March with the abuse of office conviction of the Tuzla ex-cantonal prime minister and members of his administration. My Office continues to closely monitor and assist local authorities in investigating and prosecuting corruption cases, and works closely with UNIPTF, UN Judicial System Assessment Programme, European Unionıs Customs and Fiscal Assistance Office to Bosnia and Herzegovina and other international agencies.
- Bank Privatization: The bank privatization in the Federation is being implemented, pursuant to the Law on Privatization of Banks. Majority of state-owned banks should be privatized by August 2000. Concerned with the slow pace of bank privatization and reform, my Office is working with the international community to develop a strategy to address technical, legal, and political problems in the near term.
- Reform of Payment Bureaus: The transformation of the Payment Bureaus, to be completed by the end of the year 2000, is an imperative economic reform. The International Advisory Group on Payment Bureau Transformation, of which my Office is a member, advises and assists the authorities in both Entities. In both Entities, the Governing Boards of the Payment Bureaus have committed to the transformation process. However, there is some reluctance on change from the employees.
- Various working groups for the transformation of the Payment Bureau functions to the State and entity levels are being established though staffing and equipment for the receiving institutions must still be secured. Financial verification of the Payment Bureausı assets has been completed with a final audit reported expected by mid-April. A tender announcement for the establishment of a clearing-house, which will handle all transactions and thereby reduce bank risk, has been published.
- Foreign Investment: Based on the Law on the Policy of Foreign Direct Investment a new Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) at the State level was founded. The Foreign Investment Advisory Service (FIAS a joint service of the International Finance Corporation and The World Bank) presented a framework on foreign investment promotion strategy for FIPA. The European Union and FIAS will provide further technical assistance.
- External Trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina: According to the official data, Bosnia and Herzegovina imported four times more than it exported. Compared to 1998, exports in 1999 from Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Federation grew by 32 percent and 54 percent respectively, whereas RS exports remained at the 1998 level although there was a strong recovery in the second half of 1999, following the Kosovo crisis. A trade agreement with the European Union came into force on January 1, 2000. It regulates the imports of products from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia to EU member countries. The agreement is expected to mitigate the trade deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- GDP Growth: Recent estimates suggest that real GDP growth for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1999 will be between 5-8%. In the Federation and in the Republika Srpska, industrial production in 1999 registered at 10.6 percent and 1.6 percent respectively. While the Kosovo conflict had repercussions on the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the delays in the restructuring of the socially owned enterprises were more significant. Forecast of real GDP growth for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2000 varies between 7 percent and 14 percent. According to recent data from the agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, production of more than 400 products has not resumed or experienced a sharp decline after the war. Destruction of production capacities and loss of markets including those with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia are the chief reasons.
- Statistics: My Office continues to assist the activities of the state-level Statistics Institute, a success story within the establishment of State Institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Donorsı interest is constant and significant. A draft Law on Statistics at the State level has been finalized and stands ready for the parliamentary procedure.
- Reform of Public Utilities and Implementation of Annex 9: The Commission on Public Corporations (CPC) has established several working groups to review reform needs with respect to ports, posts, the gas sector and broadcasting transmission infrastructure. Creation of Inter-Entity Public Corporations in these sectors is also being assessed. There was consensus on the benefits of creating a Broadcasting Infrastructure Corporation ("TRANSCO"), subject to further analysis. The Commission agreed that the gas sector needed restructuring and tasked the working group to develop countrywide solutions.
- Road Infrastructure: On March 6, the Entity authorities signed the agreement creating the Bosnia and Herzegovina Road Infrastructure Public Corporation (BRIC). This is the second public corporation under Annex 9. BRIC will enable institutionalized cooperation, advance joint planning and expedite the implementation of urgent road improvement projects of importance to both Entities. A high quality, economically sustainable highway network will facilitate the single economic space and the connection of Bosnia and Herzegovina with the rest of Europe. BRIC will have its seat in Banja Luka and a tripartite Management Board. A 12-member Board of Directors will exercise corporate control and provide strategic direction.
- Energy Sector: Electricity: Ministries of Energy in both Entities, with support from Norwegian experts, have prepared Entity Electricity laws. Preparation of a new State Energy Act is underway. A feasibility study has been completed which evaluated priorities and reconstruction sequencing for high-voltage transmission components to be funded by the World Bank. Furthermore, the Joint Power Co-ordination Centre has launched a feasibility study of SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) Systems which will help to modernize power systems management in preparation for joining the European grid system. Gas: The CPC Gas Sector Working Group has concurred that the gas sector requires deregulation and privatization and establishment of a radically new legal and regulatory framework. The industry is to be divided into three sectors: supply, transmission and distribution. Coal: US experts began a study of restructuring options for the coal industry in the Federation financed by the US Trade and Development Agency. The results are expected in the spring of 2000.
- Telecommunications: On February 24, the Telecommunications Regulatory Agency (TRA) received its first mobile monitoring station, donated by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). This sophisticated equipment will greatly enhance the ability of the Agency to control the frequency spectrum of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The TRA also signed a normalization agreement with SFOR, which allows for the return of certain frequencies to civilian authority. On March 14, the TRA adopted a regulation concerning the Telephone Numbering Plan for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The plan is a major step forward in creating a modern and efficient telecommunications sector as it establishes uniform dialing in the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A "Roaming" arrangement between the mobile networks of Federationıs PTT BiH and Mobile Srpska should be operational soon.
- Postal Service: The Working Group on a Postal Public Corporation agreed to engage an independent international consultant to carry out a feasibility study of options for a country-wide postal corporation for all postal services. In addition, a Postal Master Plan will be prepared which would focus on the challenges of the evolving competitive environment. The separation of postal services from telecommunications in the Federation PTT, targeted for mid-2000, is a significant next step of postal reform.
- Agriculture: My office has increased its focus on the agriculture sector as it is an important segment of the economic landscape. Many links in the agricultural production chain are weak which is exacerbated by increased imports, both legal and illegal. Marketing poses another particular problem as former markets have been lost and managers remain uncertain on finding new markets. A central priority in the agricultural area is the harmonization of standards and legislation in conformity with a single economic space. My office will also focus on the policy environment to allow private businesses to grow. It may also act as a facilitator with international participants to maximize the effect of aid, particularly as regards refugee returns and sustainability. Currently, animal diseases are increasing in both type and census and OHR has responded to ameliorate this pressing concern.
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