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Economic Task Force Secretariat
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Annualized growth rates* (excl. net wage) | June-98 | July-98 | Aug-98 | Sep-98 |
Average net wage (kM) | 319 | 329 | 335 | n/a |
Retail price growth | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
Cost-of-living growth | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% |
Real wage growth | 19.2% | 19.6 | n/a | n/a |
Industrial Production growth | 23.7% | 40.5% | 32.6% | 29.7% |
(Source: Federation Statistical Institute & OHR Estimates)
* Growth of indicator from month in 1997 to month in 1998.
Republika Srpska (RS)
Annualized growth rates (excl. n et wage) | Mar-98 | Apr-98 | May-98 | June-98 |
Average net wage (kM) | 147 | 129 | 123 | 128 |
Retail price growth | 12.2% | 28.6% | 30.4% | 35.0% |
Cost-of-living growth | 14.4% | 37.2% | 36.7% | 36.6% |
Real wage growth | 150.6% | 118.1% | 94.1% | 106.2% |
Industrial Production growth | 34.0% | 25.5% | 29.7% | 31.8% |
(Source: RS Statistical Institute & OHR Estimates
Price and output developments in the Federation continue to be favorable. Annualized inflation continues to decline, and industrial output growth remains strong.
No new data is available for the RS. Note that the fall in the RS average net wage from March to April was caused by a sharp devaluation in the Yugoslav di-nar-DM exchange rate. This devaluation also explains the much higher inflation rates in the RS after March.
(More information on this subject can be obtained by:
the OHR Economic Department, Mr. B. Roberts, Tel: 447275 or at
the IMG Economic Section, Mr. P. Hulshoff, Tel: 666273)
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Value of imports (mln KM) | Official data | CAFAO data | Official as % of CAFAO |
1997 | 2718 | 2923 | 93% |
1997: Jan - Aug | 1454 | 1826 | 80% |
1998: Jan - Aug | 1107 | 2082 | 53% |
Import growth | Official data | CAFAO data | Jan - Aug 98 on Jan - Aug 97 | -24% | 14% |
Several interesting points emerge from comparing the data. In 1997, Federation and CAFAO data on the value of imports were almost identical; the official level was only 7% less than the CAFAO level.
For the period January-August 1997, the official level was 20% less than the CAFAO data: this was due to the fact that for some months in late 1997, the official level was much lower than the CAFAO level, and for other months it was much higher. For 1997 as a whole, however, the differences evened out.
The Federation and CAFAO data diverged much more sharply in Jan-Aug 1998 than in Jan-Aug 1997. Although differences in the timing of collection of data on import flows can explain some of this, it is unlikely that it can explain all of it. CAFAO records a 14% increase in the value of imports through August 1998, whereas the official data show a 24% decline.
It is likely that the quality of official trade data has deteriorated significantly in 1998. This emphasizes the need to interpret BiH statistical data with care, and the need for assistance to and reform of the Entity Statistical Institutes.
A telephone link between Sanski Most - Prijedor was put into service recently to provide inter-entity communication between these two cities. The capacity of the link, however, is much larger than needed for direct communication between the two towns and it has now been decided to use the extra capacity for inter-entity traffic between the Federation and the RS.
Within the next few days, 240 channels will be made available between Banja Luka and Sarajevo, and 120 channels between Banja Luka and Mostar.
Up to now a maximum of 90 channels was available and this number was reduced to 30 in recent weeks due to technical failures. Thus, the new connection will significantly improve inter-entity communication.
(More information can be obtained from: the OHR Economics Department, Mr. E. MacKinlay, Tel:447 275)
Two agreements were signed on 16 October in Zagreb between BiH and the Republic of Croatia which will improve transportation links between the two countries.
Addendum 2. to the Memorandum of Understanding for common reconstruction of traffic links between the Republic of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina concerning the reconstruction of bridges on Sava and Una rivers clears the legal way between the two countries for reconstruction to start.
Navigation on the Sava cannot start before demining, cleaning and marking of the river has been carried out. The Protocol on the establishment of navigation on internal routes of the Sava River and its tributaries between the Republic of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina will allow the technical work to start, although no international assistance has been identified so far.
Reconstruction of international bridges over the Sava river is progressing. The total cost of this program is over KM 50 million and is financed mainly by the European Community, USAID and the World Bank.
The bridge between Orasje (BiH) and Zupanja (Croatia), a KM 12 million project, will be completed by the end of the year. Work is expected to start in Gradiska, where demining has been completed, in the next few weeks. Demining has also been completed in Samac and is in progress in Dubica and Brcko, where civil engineering work is expected to start this winter.
Other reconstruction projects expected to start in 1999 include the Brod, Kostajnica and Novi Bridges. Coordination of the timing of reconstruction projects will minimize disruptions caused by the temporary closure of the bridges during repairs. This program will greatly improve the links between the two countries, thereby enhancing freedom of movement and free trade.
The table below summarizes the expected timetable for the different projects up to the end of 2000. This is a tentative schedule based on currently available data and some bridges might be temporarily closed at other periods than these indicated here. |
1998 | 1999 | 2000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Name | Main Donor | River | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Novi* | USAID | Una | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | |||||||||||||||||
Kostajnica | EC | Una | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | |||||||||||||||||||
Dubica | USAID | Una | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jasenovac | EC | Una Sava |
No plans so far -- closed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gradiska | EC | Sava | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | X | X | X | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Brod | USAID | Sava | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||||||||||||||
Samac | EC | Sava | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
Orasje | WB | Sava | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ferry boat |
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Brcko | EC | Sava | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | X | X | X | X | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Raca | EC | Sava | No plans so far -- open | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Duration of work | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X | X | Closed |
*Presently closed to civilian traffic
For further information concerning this publication please contact: Paul Hulshoff, IMG - tel.: 666273 / 666020 Clement van de Coevering, OHR - tel.: 447275 |
Summary Report:Donor Aid to BiH as per 1 November 1998 (30K)
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