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Economic Task Force Secretariat
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Annualized growth rates* (excl. net wage) | Jan-98 | Feb-98 | Mar-98 | Apr-98 |
Average net wage (DM) | 300 | 314 | 307 | n/a |
Retail price growth | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 7.7% |
Cost-of-living growth | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
Real wage growth | 16.5% | 18.4% | 11.6% | n/a |
Industrial Production growth | 7.6% | 24.6% | 12.4% | 26.5% |
Real effective exchange rate | -7.2% |
(Source: Federation Statistical Institute & OHR Estimates)
* Growth rate over 12 preceding months. Negative growth in real effective exchange rate indicates a real appreciation.
Republika Srpska (RS)
Annualized growth rates (excl. net wage) | Dec-97 | Jan-98 | Feb-98 | Mar-98 |
Average net wage (DM) | 112 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Retail price growth | 12.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | n/a |
Cost-of-living growth | 18.7% | 16.0% | 18.5% | n/a |
Real wage growth | 84.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Industrial Production growth | 23.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
(Source: RS Statistical Institute & OHR Estimates)
Retail price inflation fell significantly in April in the Federation. However, cost-of-living inflation did not. Real wage growth was significantly lower than in recent months due to a fall in nominal wage growth. Industrial production continues its strong recovery.
Data for the RS are published only at a quarterly interval. First-quarter data for 1998 will be published in the next newsletter. We have corrected our estimate of real wage growth in the RS by using the market exchange rate of the Yugoslav Dinar versus the DM.
(More information on this subject can be obtained by: the OHR Economic Department, Mr. B. Roberts,Tel:447275 or at the IMG Economic Section, Mr. P. Hulshoff, Tel: 666273)
Conversion of Bosnian Dinars and DM into KM will be carried out by the offices of the payments bureaus and of banks. Other currencies will need to be converted into DM that can be exchanged for KM. The KM will be pegged to the DM in a ratio of 1:1. More details on the currency conversion process can be found in the April issue of this newsletter.
The Law will be submitted to the next BiH Parliamentary Assembly session for final adoption.
As a parallel measure, the OHR will establish, within the next three weeks, a Commission for Privatization that will observe adherence to those principles in the privatization process.
A new privatization law package, drafted with the assistance of the International Community, has been accepted by the RS Government and has been submitted to the National Assembly to be held on 15 June.
As noted in our March issue, the implementation of this state level policy law necessitates the alignment of the foreign investment laws of the Entities.
After the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 22 April, the main obstacle for the resumption of delivery was the absence of an X-ray machine in the RS. This problem was solved by the UPU lending the equipment to the RS authorities. A training program was also held for the technicians operating the machine.
Agriculture was heavily damaged during the war and is slowly moving from emergency to rehabilitation status. It is a sector of high importance to BiH, a country with ample arable land and where rural people constitute around half of the population. If well directed, it can become a major economic sector and income generating on the national level through seed export.
Overall coordination of assistance in the agricultural sector is provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Its emergency coordination office facilitates the recovery of the sector through technical assistance to the Government and donors and coordination of the aid of the international community. This function is supported by chairing the regular Task Force meetings on agriculture.
A major obstacle for the sector is mined agricultural land, which seriously hinders development. Thousands of hectares of arable land remain unused due to mine hazards. FAO will be assessing the extent of mined agricultural land during June. In the following months, the emergency coordination office of FAO plans, in collaboration with other agencies, to focus its activities on assisting rural displaced persons and returnees (especially minority returns) by distributing agricultural inputs to promote sustainable return, a crucial activity in view of the phasing out of food distribution by other agencies.
However, due to severe lack of funds, all activities and coordination carried out by the FAO emergency coordination office in BiH may soon cease.
The High Representative, in full support of the recent changes in the RS Government, recommended during the Brussels donors' conference to increase the share of the RS, especially in its eastern part. Out of the total funds for current ongoing and financed reconstruction projects, about ¼ is allocated to the RS, of which about 20 % is for the eastern part of the RS, mainly in the energy, water and transport sectors. Although investment clearly increased in the western part of RS, the eastern part is still falling behind.
Currently, the largest part still goes to the energy sector (about 1/3 of total ongoing projects, DM 320 million), much of which is for electrical production and distribution throughout the country. The major program on the rehabilitation of water supply systems that was launched immediately after the end of the war is well underway. DM 155 million is under implementation in the Federation and DM 37 million in the RS, including DM 8 million in the eastern part. Urban water systems receive the largest part of these funds. However, numerous smaller water systems in villages or rural areas now benefit from increased assistance, for instance in the frame of integrated reconstruction programs (involving different sectors like health, energy, water and housing).
With about DM 143 million currently in implementation and an additional DM 73 million to start soon, transport is the third major reconstruction sector, concentrating mainly on road repairs and Sarajevo airport.
On 3 June, 3 new agreements under the Telecommunications Emergency Reconstruction Project have been signed between the EBRD and BiH, the Federation, and RS respectively. The total project value amounts to DM 91 million, of which DM 35.4 million will be provided in loans, DM 37.7 million in grants, and the remaining DM 18 million by local financing. The present amount of ongoing and funded projects total approximately DM 47.5 million, with another DM 49 million worth of projects in the assessment and planning phase.
While many returns are expected for 1998, much remains to be done in the housing sector. The minority return process is usually linked with return plans or with the open city concept, under the umbrella of the OHR - RRTF or through UNHCR programs. In this sector, there is a need for increased flexibility and rapidity of donors to address quickly evolving situations. Acceptance of new return plans creates expectations in terms of housing reconstruction projects.
A large number of houses are currently under repair in the Brcko and Bihac areas, in central Bosnia, and in or near the Zone of Separation. The number of people returning is increasing and is expected to grow during the summer months. The number of requests for house repairs already exceeds financial possibilities. Again, there is an increasing need for quick response from the donors, through both integrated and nonintegrated projects.
For further information concerning this publication please contact: Paul Hulshoff, IMG - tel.: 666 273 Clement van de Coevering, OHR - tel.: 447 275 |
RS Regions | ||
O + F | A + I + P | |
Banja Luka | 86,177,475 | 52,855,647 |
Bijeljina | 69,814,830 | 34,482,029 |
Doboj | 34,322,760 | 11,298,710 |
Sokolac | 7,451,368 | 126,728,102 |
Srbinje | 19,748,733 | 14,917,626 |
Trebinje | 13,030,445 | 51,593,544 |
Vlasenica | 12,769,880 | 10,946,760 |
TOTAL RS: | 243,315,491 | 302,822,418 |
Federation Cantons | ||
O + F | A + I + P | |
Bosansko-Podrinjski | 12,967,000 | 13,870,516 |
Hercegovacko-Neretvljanski | 86,816,897 | 120,984,535 |
Posavski | 27,637,560 | 13,855,760 |
Sarajevo | 177,750,830 | 37,235,160 |
Srednjebosanski | 61,339,930 | 77,239,030 |
Tuzlansko-Podrinjski | 89,097,030 | 56,437,030 |
Unsko-Sanski | 97,196,365 | 78,419,453 |
Zapadnobosanski | 10,004,220 | 25,599,170 |
Zapadnohercegovacki | 8,488,000 | 5,114,010 |
Zenicko-Dobojski | 105,659,750 | 48,467,870 |
TOTAL FEDERATION: | 676,957,582 | 477,222,534 |
GRAND TOTAL: | 920,273,073 | 780,044,952 |
O + F: Ongoing + Funded projects
A + I + P: Project- Assessment + Identification + Preparation / Submission
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